Bitcoin just reminded everyone it’s not dead. Again.

I have to admit that I was a non-believer. When Bitcoin crashed more than 30% to under $75,000 in April, I thought we’d see a long and slow recovery back up to its all-time high. 

But instead, in a matter of weeks, it has recovered and just smashed through its old all-time high to break above $110,000 for the first time. When it first broke through the $100,000 milestone, it made headlines as a symbolic psychological barrier had been broken. While this latest all-time high is not quite as significant, it nevertheless lays down a marker that Bitcoin is very much alive.

At this new price point that makes Bitcoin the world’s fifth-largest asset, overtaking the market cap of Amazon. That will be music to the ears of big fund managers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton, who are all managing huge spot Bitcoin ETFs – a level of institutional adoption unthinkable a decade ago. Over $15 billion in net inflows have entered the market through these ETFs in just months, a tidal wave of capital that retail investors alone could never achieve.

A few years ago, it was Elon Musk, TikTok influencers, and a cabal of Bitcoin maximalists buying up the king of cryptocurrencies. Now it’s regulated pension funds, sovereign wealth portfolios, and global asset managers. Bitcoin has shifted from a speculative bet to a macroeconomic hedge — a digital alternative to gold with more liquidity and higher upside potential.

Analysts have pointed to Trump’s softening stance on tariffs as the catalyst for the Bitcoin recovery, while growing liquidity and a weakening U.S. dollar have surely played a part. With bullish undertones, many are now predicting that BTC continues its upward trend, extending its rally toward the $120,000 milestone. Some are going even higher and targeting $200,000 in the near term. Bullish.

Altcoin season on its way?

And what about the rest of the crypto universe? Will we see the real start of a new altcoin season? For those new to crypto, “altcoin season” (or alt season) happens when alternative coins (any cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price gains. It typically occurs when Bitcoin’s dominance (its share of the total crypto market cap) drops, and capital rotates into smaller-cap coins as investors look for higher returns.

Altcoin season is commonly declared when 75% of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. Ethereum (ETH) often leads the charge before other smaller altcoins follow. Historically, both Ethereum and Solana follow BTC’s breakout with delayed but explosive moves. 

Signs suggest one may be on the horizon. When Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, an alt season typically follows a few weeks/months later. BTC dominance has softened recently, but is still hovering around 63%. Many would want to see it fall below 50%, to signal a sustained capital rotation into altcoins

More mature market

While Bitcoin cycles follow a recognisable pattern, they are not exactly the same. What we are witnessing now are the early signs of a more sophisticated market cycle where capital flows toward growth potential rather than simply chasing Bitcoin’s momentum. 

Today, I spoke with OKX’s Global Chief Commercial Officer, Lennix Lai, who told me its latest trading data reveals Ethereum has surpassed Bitcoin as its most-traded cryptocurrency, capturing 27% of spot volume despite BTC setting a new all-time high.

 This completely flips April’s dynamic when BTC dominated at 38% while Ethereum lagged below 20%. He said that signals a distinct rotation as traders reposition while Bitcoin consolidates near all-time highs. 

“Ethereum’s comeback on our platform suggests we’re entering a more nuanced phase where traders are backing multiple horses in this bull market rather than putting all their chips on Bitcoin,” he told me.

This could spark a move into altcoins as investors gain confidence in the broader crypto market. But it’s never that simple. Others have said a broader altcoin rally remains unlikely in the near term, citing the ongoing price discovery phase in Bitcoin. As Bitcoin continues this price discovery, it tends to absorb much of the market’s liquidity. 

So instead, we could see strength appear in a select few altcoins and sectors, rather than a broad-based rally. But this is crypto we are talking about here, so expect the unexpected.

Justin Harper is a freelance business, finance, and crypto writer and editor who has worked for the BBC, FT Business, Daily Mail, and Campaign Middle East during a career spanning more than 25 years.