I have been here before.
Have you? Are you familiar with this feeling of dread in the pit of your stomach that says, ‘the world is burning, and there’s no way to escape.’
Except we escaped the last time. And we’ll escape again.
The good thing is – Bitcoin is fun again.
For the strangest, longest period earlier this year the world’s most volatile asset seemed to have turned a new leaf and became boring. It was stuck at a $110k price point and us, long time watchers and BTC enthusiasts, were beginning to ask ourselves: Is the fun over? Is this the new normal now?
But then it crashed. Thank god.
Now, the naysayers and old-money-doomsday-fans are back with their best I-told-you-memes and condescending charts about how the S&P500 or Gold or real estate or their Nan’s pancake is a better investment choice. And maybe they are right, but where’s the fun in playing it safe?
So, let’s address the elephant in the room. There are moments in every market cycle when data stops looking like numbers and starts reading like a drunkard’s confession. Friday was one of those moments.
Bitcoin went all the way down to $82,000. In 24 hours, more than 396,000 traders were liquidated. A total of $1.92 billion in leverage evaporated.
Another $135 million vanished in the span of a few hours. Step back a bit, and the red wall starts to look even more ominous: more than $1 trillion in crypto market value has disappeared since early October.
Poof. Gone.
These episodes tend to get framed as volatility, as if chaos is simply part of the deal. But sometimes the market’s violence tells a deeper truth. This week’s wipeout was not just about numbers on a screen. It was a reminder of what crypto has always been at its core: a place where belief does the heavy lifting and where the same belief can vanish faster than snow on a Dubai sidewalk.
The Uptober that went sour
Everything that is happening now has its roots in October 10. That day, without warning, the market staged one of the largest liquidation cascades in Bitcoin’s history. Exchanges forced out an estimated $19 billion in leveraged positions. Some believe the real figure is closer to $30 billion. What followed was not a recovery but a slow bleeding of conviction.
Bitcoin is now down 31 per cent from its October peak and has turned red on the year. The same bulls who insisted that this cycle was different now find themselves rationalizing why the ‘digital gold’ they championed can lose a third of its value in a matter of weeks. Markets may forget, but memories of panic linger longer.
The bulls are finally getting exhausted
The most telling signal is not the price decline. It is the behavior of the long-term holders who once prided themselves on stoicism. According to asset manager 21Shares, this group sold roughly 42,000 BTC this month, equal to about $4 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were marketed as crypto’s bridge to traditional finance, have recorded three straight weeks of outflows. Thursday alone saw $866 million pulled out, one of the worst days on record.
That is not opportunistic repositioning. That is fatigue.
For months, the crypto world nursed a narrative that monetary easing, ETF inflows, and institutional adoption would propel Bitcoin higher. But narratives collapse when liquidity thins, when the Fed signals no imminent relief, and when every bounce feels like a trap rather than a turning point.
Bitcoin is behaving like a teenager
Bitcoin has always aspired to be a macro asset, but this week showed it still behaves like a moody teenager. Fitting considering it was created 16 years ago! Liquidity has fallen sharply, with market depth down from about $766 million in early October to roughly $535 million today. When an asset this large becomes this thin, it stops absorbing pressure and starts magnifying it.
Analysts pointed to tech stocks, where valuations are being questioned again. Bitcoin, for once, did not follow equities. It led the decline. That is the paradox of its maturity. It wants to be taken seriously but still reacts like an adolescent.
How much more can Michael Saylor ‘endure’?
Nothing captured the unease more vividly than the speculation surrounding Strategy, the company synonymous with high-conviction Bitcoin purchases. Rumors surfaced that Strategy had sold part of its holdings. Arkham Intel estimated a drop from around 484,000 BTC earlier in the month to roughly 437,000 BTC by Friday. Strategy’s own website listed more than 641,000 BTC.
In any other industry, discrepancies like this would be addressed with audited filings. In crypto, it produced a wave of guessing games, price volatility, and memes.
Michael Saylor appeared online, posting a stylized HODL graphic and insisting that Strategy was ‘₿uying.’ He reiterated the commitment on CNBC, even going as far as posting ‘endure’ on X. But the problem is not what Saylor said. It is that the market now feels the need to verify the word of the asset’s highest-profile evangelist.
Buy the dip, but is it even the dip?
Some traders believe Bitcoin is nearing a local bottom. Others think the real capitulation has not begun. What is clear is that Bitcoin is now officially in a bear market, down more than 22 per cent since early October, and its year-to-date gains have shriveled from 35 per cent to less than 4 per cent.
This moment feels less like a dip and more like a correction. Maybe it grew too much, too soon and it is now finding its rightful place in the global asset portfolio. One thing is for certain though: Donald Trump slogans have begun to sound hollow. This is a period of reckoning, one that sorts out who believes in the technology and who was simply borrowing conviction from the chart.
Welcome to the new boss, same as the old boss
Bitcoin is not breaking. It is revealing. It is showing that price still depends on liquidity. That conviction still depends on conditions. That decentralization does not make an asset immune to macro forces, crowded trades, or panic.
And most importantly, that some of the old rules still matter. Even in new money.