Joshua Mahony, Chief Market Analyst at Scope Markets
European markets are under pressure in early trade, with the DAX, CAC 40, and Eurostoxx 50 all edging lower, while the FTSE 100 is largely flat following a UK jobs report that reiterated recent concerns over the direction of the economy. With wage growth easing from 5% to 4.8%, and the claimant count increasing to 17.4k, some will claim this could push the BoE towards a rate cut on Thursday. However, tomorrow’s inflation report will likely put that argument to bed, with the UK CPI rate currently standing well above target at 3.8%. As such, we should expect precious little movement in terms of UK rates for some time, with market pricing the next cut in February 2026.
In Washington, political manoeuvring around the Federal Reserve has intensified ahead of Wednesday’s pivotal decision. The Senate confirmed Trump adviser James Miran as Fed governor, ensuring the former president has a voice inside the central bank as it weighs easing. Who would be surprised to see Miran vote for an oversized 50bp cut to justify his appointment?
At the same time, an appeals court has cleared Lisa Cook to remain on the Board, marking yet another failed attempt from Trump to reshape the FOMC towards his political agenda. With markets overwhelmingly positioned for a cut, the dollar has fallen to a two-month low, reflecting an optimism that we are set to embark upon a new phase of dramatic monetary easing, thanks in no small part to recent jobs market weakness.
Technology continues to drive US equity strength, with the Nasdaq posting a 0.9% gain despite a mere 0.11% gain for the Dow. Tesla ended up gaining 3.5% thanks to Elon Musk’s decision to commit $1 billion of his own money to new shares. A clear vote of confidence in the face of ongoing Chinese competition and Trump’s removal of EV tax credits. Alphabet reached a $3 trillion valuation yesterday, with the company grabbing the headlines amid a £5 billion investment in UK artificial intelligence and scientific research infrastructure over the next two years.
That move has been framed as part of a wave of US commitments timed with Donald Trump’s upcoming state visit. Meanwhile, US officials appear to have secured a deal with Beijing to keep TikTok operational under new conditions, with the move to put ownership of their US operations highlighting the desire to maintain dominance in the social media space.
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