Participants of the crypto market are opening discussions on if Bitcoin’s ‘four-year cycle’ is still breathing, or if it is already dead. Bitcoin, which was trading around $120,000 at the beginning of October, has been simmering on the $90,000 level for over a month now. Analysts including CZ, among others, have predicted that owing to the ongoing crypto regulatory overhaul and Fed’s upcoming rate cut decision; the market could enter a phase of rally stepping into 2026.
This week, private wealth management firm Bernstein and Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) weighed in on the market predictions, forecasting that 2025 could be the year that BTC’s four-year cycle has come to an end.
Understanding BTC’s four-year cycle
The history of BTC’s price movements has shown a repeated price pattern that spans a period of four years. The halving event of BTC serves as the epicentre, around which the four-year cycle of BTC spins.
Bitcoin’s maximum lifetime supply is capped at 21 million tokens, out of which 19.96 million tokens are already in circulation. In order to slow down the addition of new BTC tokens to the network, Bitcoin’s anonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto had pre-programmed the halving event to occur after every 210,000 blocks are mined on the blockchain. It takes around four years for this BTC halving event to be triggered.
The halving, which reduces the block rewards for BTC miners each time, has historically left a lasting impact on BTC’s price trajectory and subsequently the overall market momentum. It creates a supply-demand pressure that leads to a dramatic bull market phase where Bitcoin’s price often hits a new all-time high.
BTC’s first halving event happened in November 2012. At the time, BTC was trading at $12.3. Following the first halving, the asset’s price touched a peak of $1,152 in 2013. Similarly, after the second and third halving events in 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin’s price touched the price points of $20,000 and $67,500 respectively.
Given that Bitcoin’s last halving occurred in April 2024, this year, the market expected BTC to remain bullish this year. While the asset did create an all-time-high (ATH) of $126,000 in October – it has remained flat, close to the $90,000 price point for almost two months now. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $92,000.
This flatline in BTC’s rally is what’s nudged industry analysts to open discussions if BTC’s historic four-year cycle is dead.
Here’s what CZ and Bernstein say
Key opinion leaders analyzing the markets have predicted that BTC is expected to reach $150,000 in 2026 and hit the $200,000 mark by the end of 2027.
This week, CZ marked his presence at the Bitcoin MENA conference that was held in Abu Dhabi from December 8 to December 11. Addressing the event, CZ said it will be better if Bitcoin’s four-year cycle actually just ended.
“It’s better if we don’t follow the four year cycles today, because in the four year cycles, usually this December should have been the peak of BTC. So if we follow those four year cycles, then the crypto winter will be in the next year or two. But right now, I think there’s another force at play, which is President Trump,” the crypto mogul said.
Pointing at the recently taken pro-crypto steps by U.S. President Donald Trump, CZ said Fed rate cuts, regulatory clarity, and quantitative ease for crypto businesses will basically pump the market.
“I think President Trump is using the stock market as his benchmark. And crypto is much smaller than the stock market today, so crypto is kind of tethered. So I think that force will be quite strong. So that force may be strong enough to offset the four year cycle, who knows?” CZ noted.
Bernstein, in its new research note said, that the ongoing market correction phase has broken Bitcoin’s four-year pattern. Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets at investment major VanEck shared Bernstein’s prediction on X on December 9.
“Despite a ~30 percent Bitcoin correction, we have seen less than five percent outflows via ETFs. We are moving our 2026E Bitcoin price target to $150,000, with the cycle potentially peaking in 2027 at $200,000. Our long term 2033 Bitcoin price target remains ~$1,000,000,” Sigel’s post quoting Bernstein’s research said.
Standard Chartered has also said BTC could hit the $500,000 price mark by 2028 – opposed to its previously forecasted timeline of 2030.