U.S. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely late Tuesday night, and it was just the impetus the market needed.
Bitcoin reclaimed the $75,600 mark almost immediately on the announcement, bouncing back from $74,821 as the broader crypto market took the de-escalation signal and ran with it.
By Wednesday morning, Bitcoin was trading as high as $75,251, up 2.9 percent over 24 hours and 5.3 percent on the week. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $78,143.
Trump cited deep divisions within the Iranian government and requests from Pakistan’s leadership to allow more time for negotiations.
The extension came as the original two-week ceasefire due to expire April 22, today, with no deal initially in sight and Iran signaling it would not participate in further talks. The market recovery got an additional boost from an unexpected institutional catalyst.
Markets need more than headlines
Still, the honest picture is that the rally is holding its breath rather than running the marathon. QCP Capital, one of the largest crypto market makers globally, put it plainly:
“A ceasefire extension alone is no longer enough. Markets need tangible progress such as restored energy flows, compression in crude premia, and clearer disinflation. Until then, this remains a story of partial normalization rather than full repair.”
Oil prices remain elevated, Brent crude has been trading near $90 since April 8, and as long as crude stays there, inflation expectations remain high, which keeps the Federal Reserve in a holding pattern on interest rate cuts.
The Fed meets April 28 and 29. With inflation running above 3 percent and oil still above $100 in earlier trading sessions, rate cut expectations have effectively been removed from the near-term calendar, stripping away a key macro tailwind that historically supports crypto rallies.
Analysts’ conviction about where Bitcoin goes from here is divided. Prediction markets are showing skepticism too, the likelihood of the US halting military operations against Iran by April 30 has fallen to 16 percent down from 51 percent just yesterday.
There is one genuinely bullish signal underneath all the noise. The largest Bitcoin wallets accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest monthly buying spree since 2013, while exchange reserves fell to a seven-year low.
That means the people most exposed to Bitcoin’s long-term price are buying, not selling, through every ceasefire update and every collapsed negotiation round. While retail investors appear to be panicking in and out on headlines, the largest holders appear to be using that volatility as an opportunity to accumulate.
How we got here
The past two weeks in crypto have essentially been one long geopolitical weather report. Trump tweets, markets move. Talks collapse, markets fall. A new deadline approaches, and everyone holds their breath.
The conflict between the US and Iran escalated sharply in late February, when joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure triggered a wider regional standoff. By early April, Iran had partially closed the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of global oil flows), sending crude prices surging and risk assets into a prolonged slump.
Bitcoin, which had been grinding through a multi-month range, found its upside consistently capped by rising oil prices and inflation fears, while leveraged traders in futures markets piled on bearish bets anticipating further escalation.
Then on April 7, Trump posted to Truth Social confirming a two-week ceasefire. The effect on markets was immediate. Bitcoin jumped to $72,700, a 5 percent gain in 24 hours, while US stock futures rallied alongside. Oil tumbled more than 10 percent, with West Texas Intermediate crude dropping to around $95 a barrel.
Nearly $600 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated in the immediate aftermath, with over $400 million of those coming from bearish short bets. That kind of forced covering adds fuel to a rally, accelerating the move beyond what fundamental sentiment alone would justify.
Ether rose 6 percent to $2,250, while privacy coin Zcash surged 23 percent to lead an altcoin rally. Layer 1 token Monad gained more than 15 percent and both LayerZero and Ethena climbed 14 percent in price.
AI-focused tokens including NEAR, RENDER and TAO posted near double-digit gains. Cumulative open interest in crypto futures rose 7 percent to $114.26 billion, the highest since mid-March.
The problem is that a two-week ceasefire is not a peace deal, and markets have had to keep relearning that. Peace talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 ran for more than 21 hours and collapsed without an agreement. The two sides couldn’t bridge the gap on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief.
When those talks broke down, oil prices spiked sharply while Bitcoin fell toward $71,500, and XRP and Ethereum posted losses as risk sentiment deteriorated.
Bitcoin managed to claw back toward $78,000 on April 17 after Trump suggested Iran had agreed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But it didn’t last. Iran’s military said the strait was closed again within 24 hours.
Bitcoin dropped 5 percent over the weekend as Iran walked away from a second round of talks in Islamabad and the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship.
By April 20, the market was back at a crossroads, with Bitcoin spending 46 consecutive days in extreme fear territory per the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, reading between 8 and 12 throughout the period. Currently that metric sits at 32.
The path forward, then as now, seems to depend heavily on events playing out in hotel rooms in Pakistan and not even on any blockchain.