Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and the options skew highlight growing investor confidence despite macroeconomic headwinds.
Bitcoin (BTC $104,043) has faced persistent resistance at the $105,000 threshold since May 10, leading traders to question whether the recent bullish momentum is waning. While BTC has managed to hold above the $104,000 mark, there has been a notable drop in demand for leveraged long positions, as reflected in the declining Bitcoin futures premium.
On May 14, the annualized Bitcoin futures premium hit a peak of 7% but later retreated to 5%—a level close to the neutral-to-bearish threshold and reminiscent of conditions seen four weeks ago, when BTC was trading near $84,500.
This decline in leveraged bullish interest appears to be driven by growing macroeconomic uncertainty, as Bitcoin’s price action continues to closely mirror movements in the stock market.
The S&P 500 futures reversed earlier losses on May 15, coinciding with Bitcoin’s bounce from $101,800 to $104,000. This recovery reflects a broader investor belief that the U.S. Treasury may be forced to inject liquidity, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that ongoing “supply shocks” could necessitate keeping interest rates elevated longer than expected.
Further signs of economic fragility have surfaced. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.5% month-over-month decline in April’s Producer Price Index—far below the 0.2% increase projected by economists polled by FactSet. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, investor sentiment continues to be dampened by unresolved global trade tensions, with the U.S.–China tariff truce remaining a temporary fix at best.
Investor demand for fixed income has risen, driving the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury down to 4.45% from 4.55% on May 14, reversing the previous week’s upward trend. Historically, Bitcoin tends to benefit when government bond yields rise, as such movements reflect eroding confidence in the Treasury’s debt management.
Bitcoin’s path to $105,000 hinges on macroeconomic trends
To determine whether traders are merely shying away from leverage or actively anticipating a price drop, it’s useful to examine demand for Bitcoin options. Typically, bearish sentiment pushes the BTC delta skew indicator above the neutral 6% threshold.
Contrary to such expectations, Bitcoin put (sell) options have been trading at a discount to call (buy) options, signaling robust confidence in the $100,000 support level. However, the optimism observed on May 14 has since moderated, with the indicator now at a neutral -4%.
Since Bitcoin’s price movement remains closely aligned with the U.S. stock market, its ability to break past $105,000 will largely hinge on broader macroeconomic indicators, particularly developments in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the evolving risk of a recession. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s high correlation with the S&P 500 rarely lasts beyond two months.
Adding to the optimistic signals, U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $320 million on May 14, indicating sustained institutional interest. This suggests a gradual transformation in how investors perceive Bitcoin from a risk-on asset to a more diversified, non-correlated investment vehicle. Such a shift could help stabilize prices even in the absence of strong leveraged buying pressure.