Powerful quantum computers may arrive sooner than many experts expected, a new study from the California Institute of Technology, or Caltech, and quantum start-up Oratomic has predicted. If this happens, it could put Bitcoin and other digital assets at risk before the end of this decade.
Released on Wednesday, the research noted that a fully functional quantum machine may need only 10,000 to 20,000 qubits, the basic units of quantum information. That is far lower than the millions once thought necessary.
Today’s quantum computers still make many errors and cannot handle complex tasks well. To work effectively, they need error correction.
In previous systems, researchers often needed about 1,000 physical qubits to create one stable logical qubit. But the Caltech team introduced a more efficient method using neutral-atom arrays.
In this setup, qubits can connect with many others across the system instead of only nearby ones. That design reduces the number of qubits needed.
According to the study, one logical qubit may need only about five physical qubits. With that improvement, a machine with 1,000 logical qubits could run on around 10K to 20K physical qubits.
Earlier, many quantum computing experts believed it would take another 10 to 20 years to build such a precise machine.
Researchers said that level may be possible within the next five to seven years.”It’s actually very surprising how well this works. It’s what we call ultra-efficient error correction,” Endres, a professor of physics at Caltech, says.
What this means for Bitcoin
Bitcoin and most of the cryptocurrencies use elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) for creation of wallet addresses, signing transactions, and protecting private keys.
The Caltech report said this is one of the encryption methods that quantum computers could eventually break.
The concern goes back to Shor’s algorithm, which mathematician Peter Shor introduced in 1994. His work showed that a powerful enough quantum computer could solve the mathematical problems behind ECC and RSA, two technologies that support much of today’s digital security.
If researchers build a fault-tolerant quantum computer with around 1,000 logical qubits near 2030, it could theoretically run Shor’s algorithm at a level strong enough to extract private keys from public Bitcoin addresses.
That could put some funds at risk, especially in wallets that reuse addresses or still rely on older signature methods.
The findings are still theoretical, and the researchers admitted that major engineering challenges remain. Even so, progress on the hardware side is also moving forward.
Caltech said Endres and his team recently built the largest qubit array assembled so far, with 6,100 trapped neutral atoms. The researchers also pointed to early progress in error-corrected operations and large atomic arrays as signs that neutral-atom systems are advancing quickly.
“Unlike other quantum computing platforms, neutral atom qubits can be directly connected over large distances,” Endres says. “Optical tweezers can shuttle one atom to the other end of the array and directly entangle it with another atom.”
The next step is to scale these systems further while keeping error rates low. Oratomic launched to build utility-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers in close work with Caltech’s Advanced Quantum Computing Mission.
Preparing for a quantum-safe future
Proactive defence is now essential, according to the researchers, due to the rapid development of quantum technology.
In fact, the world standards bodies, including the US National Institute of Standards and Technology, are already developing post-quantum encryption algorithms that are resistant to both classical and quantum attacks.
As far as crypto networks are concerned, the implementation of these technologies will need to be managed to avoid disrupting decentralization and accessibility, the researchers highlighted.
While the research does not state that Bitcoin will be compromised by the end of the decade, it does insinuate that the time to defend against the threat is soon running out.
The study came just one day after Google published a paper with a similar warning. Google said quantum computers may be able to break Bitcoin’s cryptography much sooner than earlier estimates suggested.
Google also last week set its own deadline, 2029, for its own migration to the post-quantum world. The company advised companies to use quantum-safe encryption before the emergence of powerful quantum computers.
Google also warned that an attacker could store data now, encrypt it, and later, when quantum computers are powerful enough, they could decrypt the data.