Bitcoin’s rally faces new challenges after investment firm Galaxy Digital slashed its 2025 price forecast from $185,000 to $120,000, citing weakened liquidity, mass liquidations, and shifting institutional sentiment. The revision reflects what analysts are calling a transition into a more mature, slower-paced phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin enters a “maturity era”
According to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, Bitcoin is now moving through what he describes as the “maturity era” a stage defined by ETF absorption, lower volatility, and more passive institutional flows.
He noted that while the crypto asset has held above the $100,000 support level, upside potential is now more gradual as investors diversify into other themes like gold, artificial intelligence, and stablecoins.
October’s turbulence underscored this shift. Data from Galaxy shows that large holders offloaded nearly 400,000 BTC worth about $41 billion during the month, coinciding with a historic $20 billion liquidation wave that erased weeks of gains.
Bitcoin can still sustain its long-term uptrend if it remains above $100,000, Thorn said, but the explosive phases of the bull cycle appear to be behind us for now.
Selling pressure deepens amid technical cracks
The selloff intensified this week as $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated on Tuesday, pushing BTC below $100,000 for the first time in four months.
The drop also broke Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, a key technical level closely watched by traders for long-term trend strength.
Bitcoin has now fallen over 20% from its record high near $126,000, prompting debate over whether the market has officially entered bear territory.
However, some analysts argue that such corrections remain within historical norms, noting that prior cycles have often seen 20–30% drawdowns before resuming upward momentum.
Outlook: Slower growth, steadier structure
Despite the near-term weakness, Galaxy maintains that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, underpinned by institutional adoption and increasing integration with traditional finance.
Bitcoin is becoming less speculative and more systemic that changes how it trades, but not what it represents.