Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market platform, is under scrutiny following allegations of manipulation in a high-profile wager on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wore a suit before July.
The market, titled “Will Zelensky wear a suit before July?”, has drawn more than $58 million in wagers and is set to resolve by July 4 at 2:09 AM ET. According to market rules, a “Yes” outcome depends on credible photo or video evidence of Zelensky wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30.
Zelenskyy appeared at a June 24 NATO summit in The Hague wearing a black blazer, collared shirt, and matching pants. Outlets like the BBC, Reuters, and New York Post referred to the outfit as a suit. However, the resolution remains in dispute.
Disputes, precedents, and token voting tensions
Polymarket uses UMA, a decentralized oracle protocol, to resolve disputes. Despite initial consensus on a “Yes” verdict, UMA token holders challenged and overturned that outcome twice, sending the decision into a final vote.
At the heart of the conflict is whether Zelensky’s attire fits the definition of a suit. Supporters of “Yes” point to multiple news sources identifying the outfit as a suit, as required by the market terms. Opponents argue that his lack of a tie and casual styling disqualify the look under traditional standards of business attire.
A similar outfit Zelensky wore in May was previously ruled not a suit, influencing current voter behavior and adding fuel to the controversy.
Critics have accused large UMA token holders of manipulating outcomes to protect their financial exposure. Because UMA allows voters to bond tokens and challenge results, well-funded participants can influence verdicts, even against broad public consensus.
Polymarket’s integrity questioned amid funding push
The current uproar echoes earlier controversies surrounding Polymarket’s handling of disputed markets, including a $120 million TikTok ban bet and a $7 million Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal, both of which drew claims of selective evidence dismissal.
Polymarket has attempted to distance itself from the outcome. Its @PolymarketIntel X account initially labeled Zelensky’s outfit a suit but was later rebranded as “community-run.” Several proposals to establish a market integrity oversight team have also been rejected.
As the final vote nears, the outcome may not only determine tens of millions in user funds, but also Polymarket’s credibility at a pivotal time the platform is reportedly closing a $200 million funding round.