- Prediction markets gain mainstream traction, emerging as one of the most relatable and accessible DeFi applications.
- Experts see mass adoption potential, citing their simplicity and ability to convert complex forecasts into digestible insights.
- Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surge in growth and visibility, with billions in trading volume and widespread cultural recognition.
Prediction markets once considered a niche corner of decentralized finance (DeFi) are now entering the global mainstream. According to Mike Rychko, researcher at Azuro, the simplicity and accessibility of prediction markets could make them the first DeFi product to achieve true mass adoption.
In a Thursday post on X, Rychko argued that while most people may never trade on complex derivatives exchanges, they easily understand the concept of probabilities expressed in plain language.
Most people will never open a derivatives exchange. But ‘87% chance Mamdani wins’ that’s a language anyone speaks.
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He added that humans naturally prefer “clean, digestible signals”, and prediction markets fulfill that desire by turning complex analyses into intuitive data points.
That simplicity is precisely why prediction markets will find mass adoption faster than most DeFi experiments ever did.
Mainstream momentum: Investment and cultural recognition
The data supports Rychko’s optimism. Earlier this month, crypto prediction platform Polymarket secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) valuing it at $9 billion.
Reports from early September suggested Polymarket is preparing for a U.S. launch that could raise its valuation to $10 billion, following the appointment of the U.S. President’s son to its board of directors.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to wager stablecoins on real-world outcomes, from elections to sports results. Its activity skyrocketed during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with record-high trading volumes and daily active wallets.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, a regulated U.S. prediction market overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has also seen a surge in visibility. Its live prediction ticker in New York City showing real-time odds for the mayoral election has gone viral, drawing over 13 million views on X.
Rychko called this display a “public signal” and compared it to how stock tickers symbolized the financial revolution of the 1980s, saying prediction tickers now define “the informational economy of the 2020s.”
Kalshi’s appearance on South Park, in an episode centered on U.S. President Donald Trump, cemented its place in popular culture and further normalized prediction markets in the mainstream consciousness.
Explosive growth across platforms
Although Kalshi operates as a regulated, non-crypto platform, much of the market’s revival stems from crypto-driven innovation.
Polymarket, for instance, reached its peak activity during the 2024 elections, recording:
- 72,600 daily active wallets (Jan. 19, 2025),
- 590,000 transactions in a single day (Dec. 27, 2024), and
- Over $1 billion in monthly trading volume this year.
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s cumulative trading volume now exceeds $15.7 billion. Meanwhile, DefiLlama data shows the platform’s total value locked (TVL) stands at $194 million a 2,325% increase year-over-year, despite being below its election peak of $512 million.
Prediction markets: DeFi’s most relatable gateway
Rychko concluded that prediction markets offer DeFi’s most relatable entry point connecting cultural relevance with financial participation. Their simplicity, combined with the thrill of real-world outcomes, allows users to engage with blockchain-based systems without needing deep technical or trading expertise.
As traditional finance giants like ICE invest and regulatory clarity improves, prediction markets appear set to transition from crypto niche to global phenomenon, potentially becoming DeFi’s first true mass-adoption success story.
