Polymarket, a prediction market place, currently indicates a declining probability that the CLARITY Act will be approved in 2026. Recent data shows that the approval odds have fallen to 52 percent, down 13 percentage points from the previous peak.
Polymarket is a prediction market where users may make bets on real-world events. As a result, the odds on Polymarket are more representative of market perception than government estimates.
The drop suggests traders are becoming less certain about how quickly U.S. lawmakers can agree on comprehensive crypto regulation.
Political disagreements, different legislative priorities, and ongoing debates about market structure and oversight are probably all factors in the change in expectations.
The goal of the CLARITY Act is to make the rules for regulating digital assets and the agencies that oversee them clearer.
If the bill is delayed or not passed, it could cause more uncertainty for crypto companies in the US. On the other hand, if the vote passes, it would be seen as a big step toward clearer rules for the industry and more institutional use.
Status-quo for CLARITY Act
The United States plans to finalise the much-anticipated CLARITY Act in April, giving regulators little over a month to settle flaws with the draft measure.
As Coinheadlines reported earlier, members of the crypto and banking industries had previously gathered at the White House for another round of negotiations on the crypto market structure law, only to depart with a March 1 deadline to address the stablecoin incentives disagreement.
The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees, which oversee the SEC and CFTC in the United States, have been working together to write the CLARITY Act. In January, they offered a draft bill, which was vigorously opposed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong.
Policymakers have been meeting with representatives of the cryptocurrency and banking industries on a regular basis in Washington, D.C. to discuss revisions to the proposed legislation.
During the session of these continuing discussions, the White House stated that the stablecoin conflict must be settled within the next 10 days, by March 1.
This action has increased the necessity of finalising the crypto market structure bill.
CLARITY Act in detail
The CLARITY Act is designed to bring clearer and more structured rules to the U.S. crypto industry.
Its main goal is to better protect investors while giving crypto companies a clear understanding of what is legally expected from them.
The bill also tries to remove long-standing confusion around who regulates different types of digital assets. In the proposed plan, the responsibility of oversight will be shared between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which will help to create a balanced regulatory system.
In summary, the bill is intended to make the U.S. cryptocurrency market safer, more transparent, and more in line with international regulations.