Fidelity’s macro director thinks that Bitcoin will hit a low of around $65,000 in 2026, but he is still a “secular bull” even if he thinks the current four-year cycle will expire.
Bitcoin may have finished its four-year historical cycle, which might mean that the next year will be bad for the currency. This is despite the fact that many analysts predict the cycle to last longer because of regulatory support.
Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macroeconomic analysis at Fidelity, an asset management firm, said that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $125,000 on October 6 may have marked the end of the current four-year halving cycle, both in terms of “price and time.”
Timmer noted in a post on X on Thursday, “While I still think Bitcoin is going to go up, I’m worried that it may have just finished another 4-year cycle halving phase.” “Bitcoin winters have lasted roughly a year; therefore, I think 2026 could be a “year off” or “off year” for Bitcoin. There is support at $65,000 to $75,000.
The crypto market may go up more
Timmer’s thesis goes against what other crypto analysts think, which is that the expanding quantity of regulated crypto investment products would lead to a long bull market cycle in 2026.
Tom Shaughnessy, who co-founded the crypto analysis business Delphi Digital, thinks that Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs in 2026, after the market crash at the beginning of October that wiped off $19 billion in value.
Shaughnessy noted in a Friday X post, “We are working through a one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation event that broke the market.” He went on to say, “Once that’s worked through, we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026 as prices rubber band to reflect the progress outside 10/10.”
Shaughnessy noted that the “fundamental progress” of the business, such as more Wall Street use and new regulations, will affect the value of cryptocurrencies.
Policy experts also say that this year will be a big one for US cryptocurrency laws, which might lead to increased institutional investment in the crypto field.
The real impact will come from implementation examinations, disclosures, and how these assets fit into payments and financial infrastructure.
But earlier this week, when Bitcoin fell below $85,000, investors’ social mood took a big knock. Market analytics tool Santiment says that bearish comments have taken over social media sites like X, Reddit, and Telegram since then.
At the same time, the finest traders in the crypto sector, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are also wagering that most major cryptocurrencies will go down in value in the short term.
According to Nansen statistics, smart money traders were net short on Bitcoin for $123 million, but they were also banking on Ether’s price rise, with a total of $475 million in net long bets.