Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is preparing to launch prediction market contracts, according to media reports. The move would mark one of Gemini’s most significant strategic shifts since its public debut in September 2025.
In May, Gemini had filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a designated contract market. This is a regulatory prerequisite for launching derivatives products. Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the exchange is now aiming to roll out event-based contracts “as soon as possible”.
Betting on real-world outcomes
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. This could range from elections and sports to economic decisions that shape the world. These markets have long existed in the shadows of regulatory ambiguity, but recent moves by firms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which operates a CFTC-approved platform, have brought them into the mainstream.
Not so long ago, Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent of Truth Social, said that they were considering entering the prediction market space. Whereas, Binance founder ‘CZ’ also wants a piece of the pie and is backing a new project called Opinion Labs, which is set to rival Polymarket. Coinbase and MetaMask have also shown interest in the space, signaling a broader trend among crypto firms to diversify into regulated, event-driven trading.
Gemini’s strategic shift
Founded in 2014, Gemini has positioned itself as a compliance-first exchange. This pivot into prediction markets is a move to expand its product suite and tap into the emerging demand for alternative financial instruments. According to a Forbes report, fresh funding could take Kalshi and Polymarket’s valuations to $5 billion and $9 billion, respectively. There is no doubt then that prediction markets have become hotspots for investments from the smartest billionaires in finance.