Polymarket, the prediction market portal, has revealed an interesting outcome for its latest Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 bet. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has managed to topple VP Kamala Harris as a potential contender. Johnson comes in fourth on the list with a 6–6.4% prediction. Governor Gavin Newsom currently leads with approximately 31% implied probability, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, Pete Buttigieg at 7%.
Even though the elections are far away, the market appears active and fluid, reflecting real-time shifts in sentiment as users trade shares on likely outcomes. For instance, volume figures show Newsom at over $734K, Johnson with $445K, and Harris at $522K.
The Rock’s political ambition
The former wrestling star has repeatedly addressed speculation about his political future. In a 2023 appearance on Trevor Noah’s podcast, he revealed that multiple political parties had approached him in late 2022, asking him to consider candidacy. They showed data that suggested he’d be a formidable candidate.
Back then, Johnson had brushed it off, saying that politics was “never [his] goal. But he left the door open to consider public service, ‘if that’s ultimately what the people would want’. Earlier, he told GQ that a potential run in 2024 or 2028 could be realistic if he gained relevant experience.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction market platforms are typically where traders buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Prices typically reflect the market’s collective expectation of probability. Polymarket is built on the Polygon blockchain, mainly to enable users to trade with USDC. Such markets are praised for aggregating diverse opinions into probabilistic forecasts, often perceived as more dynamic and responsive than traditional polls.
Interestingly, Polymarket announced that 1789 Capital, the venture firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, made a multi-million-dollar investment in the platform on August 27. A Reuters report showed that Polymarket had accrued $6 billion in trade volume in the first half of 2025 alone. With U.S. regulatory clarity improving, there is renewed political and financial interest and confidence in prediction markets.