Escalating US-Iran tensions are boosting safe-haven demand, with gold attracting investors while equities and Bitcoin face pressure.
Rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing investors toward safe-haven assets, with gold demand climbing as traders flee equities and crypto markets.
Oil exports surge as tensions build
On Wednesday, reports revealed that Iran has sharply increased crude oil exports, with shipments from Kharg Island reaching roughly 20.1 million barrels between Feb. 15 and Feb. 20, about three times January’s level, as a preemptive supply release and a hedge against possible disruption if tensions with the United States escalate.
At the same time, increasingly hawkish US rhetoric regarding Iran’s nuclear program has raised expectations of confrontation, according to Bitunix analysts. “In the event of a direct US–Iran military conflict, gold could rise by roughly 15% within two weeks on safe-haven demand, targeting a range of $5,500–$5,800 per ounce.
Uncertainty drives flight to safety
Crypto markets also remain sensitive to the macro forces, the analysts said, noting that safe-haven flows into the US dollar could pressure Bitcoin (BTC $68,280) prices toward the $64,000-$65,000 zone. On the other hand, if inflation concerns dominate over dollar strength, capital could rotate into alternative hedges and push BTC toward $69,000 liquidity levels, Bitunix analysts said.
That rotation into safe-haven assets is already visible in investor behaviour. Data shared by The Kobeissi Letter on Thursday shows Indian investors are rapidly reallocating capital into gold. Gold ETF inflows in India have climbed to about 250 billion rupees (around $2.7 billion), an all-time high, surpassing equity mutual fund inflows for the first time.
The increased inflows into gold products come amid a decline in equity allocations, with gold ETF demand rising more than 900% since July as stock-fund inflows dropped by roughly 170 billion rupees (around $1.9 billion), according to The Kobeissi Letter.
“As the world’s 2nd-largest gold consumer and one of its biggest importers, India’s shift toward gold ETFs marks a fundamental change in how its investors are allocating their capital,” the analyst said.
Weak demand keeps Bitcoin range-bound
While gold is attracting defensive flows, on-chain data suggests a limited level of crypto conviction. In a recent report, Glassnode said that Bitcoin continues trading between $60,000 and $70,000 with weak whale accumulation and persistent ETF outflows.
The report also disclosed that investors are currently holding nearly 9.2 million BTC at a loss. Furthermore, the 90-day realised profit-to-loss ratio has fallen under 1, indicating more holders are selling at a loss than taking profits.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a rebound on Wednesday as Bitcoin climbed back above $68,000. The funds attracted about $506.5 million in daily inflows, the largest since early February, putting the funds on track for their first weekly inflow after five weeks of $3.8 billion in outflows.