A trader on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket has quietly made $118,754 in profit by focusing on an unusual bet: predicting how many times Elon Musk would tweet each week.
The user, known as Prexpect, placed nearly 2,000 bets on Musk’s weekly posting activity, turning a simple observation of the billionaire’s social media habits into a surprisingly consistent trading strategy.
Snapchat screenshot reveals details
The discovery began with what seemed like a casual message shared with a small group of friends. A Polymarket user reportedly posted a screenshot of their winnings to their Snapchat “close friends” story, mentioning they had just made around $19,000. The post was only visible to 47 people, suggesting it was meant to stay private.
But the story didn’t stay there. One of those viewers took a screenshot and shared it publicly on social media platform X. Within hours, the post began circulating widely, attracting roughly 340,000 views and drawing attention from the crypto community.
The thing that caught people’s attention was the fact that on the screenshot, the crypto wallet address was visible in the corner. Due to blockchain’s transparency, people were able to track the activities of the wallet on Polymarket.
The findings were striking. The wallet appeared to belong to a trader using the username Prexpect, who had earned $118,754 in profit since joining Polymarket in November 2024. Records showed the user had placed 1,943 predictions during that time.
Even more surprising was the fact that every single bet focused on the same question: how many times Elon Musk would tweet in a given week.
How did the strategy work?
Polymarket allows users to wager on real-world outcomes, and Musk’s social media activity has become one of the platform’s recurring prediction markets.
Because Musk is one of the most active and unpredictable figures online, his posting habits often spark speculation among traders.
The mistake immediately generated an online discussion. Some people were amazed by the trader’s strategy, which focused on a single niche market and developed a strategy based on that niche market alone.
Additionally, market participants also observed that Musk’s online activities generally tend to follow patterns that are related to news events, company announcements, or major public debates.
Whatever the case, this mistake provided a unique insight into ways that traders can create lucrative niches on prediction platforms. Ironically, a post intended for a handful of friends eventually exposed this strategy to hundreds of thousands of people.