A new bipartisan push in Washington could soon change how prediction markets operate in the United States, especially when it comes to sports and casino-style betting.
Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis are reportedly preparing legislation that would stop federally regulated prediction-market platforms from offering contracts tied to sporting events or games that resemble casino betting.
The proposal would apply to companies overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), including platforms like Kalshi and the U.S. version of Polymarket.
What’s behind the new law?
At the heart of the move is a growing concern among lawmakers that prediction markets are starting to look and feel too much like traditional gambling. These platforms have been able to gain traction by allowing users to trade on the outcome of real-world events, which include elections, economic indicators, and sports outcomes.
While these platforms claim to be providing a financial instrument to forecast outcomes and manage risk, some people have expressed concern over the blurring of boundaries.
The new bill is intended to establish this boundary. The bill, if it is passed, would effectively prevent prediction markets regulated by the federal government from being able to trade on sports outcomes, such as “whether a team wins a game or a championship.”
Lawmakers move to keep prediction markets out of gambling turf
Lawmakers say this step is necessary to prevent federally supervised financial platforms from drifting into territory traditionally regulated as gambling by individual states.
The legislation would also extend to so-called casino-style offerings. That includes markets that resemble games like slots, blackjack, poker, or bingo. In other words, the focus isn’t just on sports-it’s on ensuring that prediction markets remain centered on serious economic or public-interest events rather than entertainment-driven betting.
The timing reflects how quickly the sector has grown. Prediction markets have moved from niche tools to mainstream platforms attracting retail users, traders, and even policymakers paying attention to their signals. With that growth has come increased scrutiny, as regulators and lawmakers try to figure out where these platforms fit within existing financial and gaming rules.
If the bill moves forward, it could mark an important turning point for the industry. It wouldn’t shut prediction markets down, but it would narrow what they’re allowed to offer—pushing them to focus more on economic and policy forecasting rather than sports and casino-style wagers.