A strategist at Wells Fargo suggested that greater US tax refunds could make people more willing to take risks in stores again by the end of March. This could lead to new money going into Bitcoin and momentum stocks.
In 2026, US taxpayers may get higher refunds than they have in the past. One Wall Street strategist said this could make people more willing to take risks with digital assets and tech firms that retail investors like.
According to a memo that CNBC saw, Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon stated that the upcoming wave of refunds might help bring back the “YOLO” trade, with as much as $150 billion possibly going into stocks and Bitcoin (BTC $67,504) by the end of March. Kwon noted that higher-income people might be able to see the extra money the most.
Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon wrote in a letter on Sunday that “speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return.” He went on to say, “We think that more money saved from tax returns, especially for high-income people, will go back into stocks.”
Kwon suggested that some of the money may go into Bitcoin and equities that retail traders like, such as Robinhood and Boeing.
Bitcoin demand tied to sentiment and macro conditions
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at the crypto intelligence platform Nansen highlights that part of the taxpayer money may go into Bitcoin and other digital assets. However, it is vital to keep in mind that inflation and consumer spending are higher now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic.
If people start to feel better about crypto assets and retail sees positive upward movement in them, I think that will make it more likely that money will flow in this direction.
He warned that if digital asset sentiment doesn’t get better soon, retail investors might choose alternative assets that have “higher momentum and social stickiness”.
Source: Nansen
Trump tax legislation cited as catalyst
The bigger tax returns are because US President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill passed. This bill has many good things in it for tax filings in 2025.
On July 4, 2025, Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law. He said it will save the federal government up to $1.6 trillion.
Smart money is betting on the crypto market going down while whales quietly build up their holdings.
The whales, or big investors, are still quietly buying up the top cryptocurrencies, while the traders with the best returns, known as “smart money,” are wagering that the crypto market will go down even further.
Crypto intelligence site Nansen said that smart money traders were net short on Bitcoin for a total of $107 million, as well as most of the top cryptocurrencies except for Avalanche (AVAX) at $9.05.
Still, whales bought roughly $41.9 million worth of spot Ether (ETH) $1,979 tokens across 22 wallets last week. This was a 1.7-fold increase in the number of spot purchases made by this group.