BitMEX Research has suggested a different way for Bitcoin to deal with future quantum threats. Instead of freezing vulnerable coins after a fixed deadline, the firm said Bitcoin should only take that step if there is clear proof on-chain that a quantum computer can break its current security.
The company published the new proposal on Thursday, which came as a response to the newly added BIP-361 draft in Bitcoin’s BIP repository.
A group of Bitcoin developers on Tuesday introduced BIP-361, called Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset, which lays out a step-by-step plan.
First, around three years after activation, users would no longer be able to send Bitcoin to older address types that are seen as vulnerable to quantum attacks.
Then, about two years later, the network would reject transactions that use older ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. As a result, those vulnerable coins would effectively become frozen. The draft also mentions a possible recovery option later, but that part is still not final.
BitMEX said that approach may be too strict. The firm noted that nobody knows exactly when, or even whether, a quantum computer strong enough to threaten Bitcoin will appear.
Because of that, the research team argued that Bitcoin should not move to a full freeze unless the danger becomes real and proven.
It also said critics of a forced freeze believe such a step could hurt Bitcoin’s censorship-resistant design, because it would stop some coins from being spent before any actual attack happens.
The firm stated, “We should attempt to avoid a complete freeze altogether, unless it is proven that a quantum computer has actually arrived.”
How BitMEX says the alternative would work
BitMEX proposed the “canary system” to tackle this situation. Simply put, Bitcoin would first enter a watch period instead of freezing vulnerable coins automatically after five years.
During that time, older coins could still be used normally. However, the network would keep watching one special Bitcoin address designed to test whether a real quantum attacker exists.
If anyone manages to spend coins from that address, it would be seen as clear proof that quantum technology has become a real threat. In that case, the freeze could begin immediately.
BitMEX said this special address would be created using a Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number, or NUMS.
This method helps show that no one knows the private key behind the address. Because of that, the coins in it should not be spendable under normal conditions.
However, if a machine becomes strong enough to break Bitcoin’s current cryptography, the address could be spent from. If that happens, it would serve as a clear warning for the wider Bitcoin network.
Canary fund and safety window
The proposal also includes a “canary fund.” Users could voluntarily send Bitcoin to the canary address, creating a bounty that may encourage a lab or company with powerful quantum technology to claim that fund instead of secretly attacking other wallets first.
BitMEX acknowledged that this is not perfect. The bounty might not be large enough, and the system adds more complexity than a simple freeze.
Still, the firm argued it may be worth studying because it could reduce unnecessary disruption and lower the chance that users lose coins without proof of a real threat.
The research note also outlined a safety window. Under this approach, vulnerable coins could still be moved, but the new outputs from those transactions would stay temporarily locked for a longer period.
BitMEX gave 50,000 blocks, or roughly one year, as an example. This would give the network more time to respond if the canary is triggered soon after suspicious activity begins.
In the end, BitMEX said its model would be harder to design than a simple freeze. Even so, the firm argued that it is worth studying, because a full freeze could be highly disruptive and controversial for Bitcoin users.
Bitcoin’s quantum risk debate grows
The debate is growing as Bitcoin developers pay closer attention to long-term quantum risk.
According to BIP-361, more than 34 percent of all Bitcoin had already revealed a public key on-chain as of March 1. That means those coins could, in theory, become vulnerable if highly advanced quantum computers ever emerge.
For now, both BIP-361 and BitMEX’s canary-based alternative remain proposals. They are not part of Bitcoin’s active rules.
Recent research has increased concerns around Bitcoin’s future security. Google researchers warned that quantum computers may eventually crack the encryption behind Bitcoin and other digital systems sooner than many had assumed.
Tron, meanwhile, has already begun working on stronger protections to help secure its blockchain over the long term.